The Golden State has 55 electoral votes out of a possible 538 electoral college votes, or 10.22%. According to the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), 83% of eligible adults are registered to vote in California. This number is markedly higher than in the previous election in 2016 when it stood at 73%. Democrats number 46.3% of the electorate in California and Republicans make up 24%. Those with no stated political affiliation make up 24% of the electorate.
Independent voters in California largely lean Democratic, at 46%, compared to Republican at 37%. Of the likely voters in California, Whites comprise 55% although they only account for 41% of the adult population. The Golden State has distinct areas that are Democratic and Republican, notably cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Orange County/San Diego. Republicans tend to live in San Diego counties, Orange County, Central Valley, and Los Angeles county in smaller numbers.
The question of voter profiles is an important one, as it determines affiliation for each of the candidates. While many states are a toss-up, it’s like a crapshoot calling a winner. California in 2020 is a safe bet for Democrats. The statistics that have been conjured up for the election serve as a playbook for determining the likely outcomes. It’s worth drawing parallels between election campaigns and skill-based casino games, like blackjack. If you were a gambling person seeking more casino games from SlotsHeaven, you would readily apply all of these statistical ‘blueprints’ to games like blackjack and poker where strategy really matters. That would serve you well during volatile sessions of play.
Liberals Outnumber Conservatives, and Moderates Will Come into Play
In terms of the upcoming election however, the numbers are telling. Of the likely voters, 33% are Conservative, 37% are Liberal, and 30% are Moderate. African-Americans tend to vote Democratic, much like Latinos and Asian-Americans. Of the white voters, 72% tend to vote Republican, 46% vote Democratic. The Democratic party is much stronger with women, with substantially more females voting Democratic than Republican. The Democratic party also pulls double the 18-34-year-olds than the Republican Party, but both parties are in lockstep with 35-54-year-olds.
With such definitive trends, it is safe to say that if a business as usual approach to the election takes place, California’s electoral votes will be ceded to Joe Biden/Kamala Harris. In 2016, 61.7% of the vote went to Hillary R. Clinton, and 31.6% of the vote went to Donald J. Trump. In fact, California has been safely Democratic since 1992, and if its history as usual, it will be 28 years that California has been Democratic. But it cannot be taken for granted that California will always be an impregnable blue wall against Republican advances – California regularly voted Republican in prior years.
California is Now a Safe State for Biden
A big part of the reason why elections are decided by swing states is that ‘safe states’ are not worth campaigning in. It is accepted as a given that the Democratic ticket will handily win California, possibly with a 65% majority in 2020. However, voting still matters in California. There are a number of reasons why voter apathy could lead to an imbalance in a presidential election campaigning California.
Hypothetically speaking, if too many people decide not to vote because they don’t like the candidates, or their policies, the election and all manner of policies (rental prices, forest management, police reform) will be decided by a handful of people who are motivated. That doesn’t seem likely to occur in 2020, given the fierce opposition to Donald J. Trump in California.
It is important to point out that the number of electoral votes in each state are dependent upon the population of that state. Big blue states like New York and California make it much easier for Democratic hopefuls to drum up the necessary votes for a winning majority. Since Republicans states tend to be less populous, the number of electoral votes in these states reflects accordingly.
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